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What I Got Right and Wrong in 2020

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What I Got Right and Wrong in 2020

But mostly what I got right, because 2020 was bad enough as it is, so take your wins where you can get them

Yair Rosenberg
Jan 1, 2021
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What I Got Right and Wrong in 2020

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Artist’s rendering of me exiting 2020
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Yair Rosenberg @Yair_Rosenberg
"Trump will definitely be running and the Republican nominee for president in 2024," wrote the Twitter user working from home during a global pandemic that didn't exist 9 months ago.
10:58 PM ∙ Nov 12, 2020
237Likes27Retweets

Because I report on the past, not the future, I try to be parsimonious with predictions. This is particularly good professional practice when you cover the Middle East, as I do, because it has a way of making even the smartest prognosticators look like idiots.

That said, like many in my line of work, I often can’t resist playing the prophet. And so one of my resolutions after Trump won in 2016—when I thought he’d lose—was that while I’d be more careful with my predictions, I’d also be more self-critical about them. The idea was to figure out why I got stuff wrong so that I’d be less wrong in the future.

Fast-forward to the 2020 election and… it mostly worked! Below, I’ve cataloged some of my hits and misses. Now, I’m sure I’ll make some incredibly dumb claim in the months ahead that will utterly undermine all the good work I’ve done, so I’m going to spike the football while I can.

Joe Biden, the Predictable President

After getting 2016 so very wrong, I tried to reverse-engineer the mistake so I wouldn’t make it again. I came to the realization that I’d overvalued the opinion of elites and my peers on Twitter, while neglecting things like polls and other indicators of national mood. In 2020, I corrected course accordingly, and arrived at the early conclusion that Joe Biden was actually a very strong candidate who would probably win the primary and the presidency. At the time, I was one of approximately 6 people in the professional punditsphere willing to say this out loud—the Moses of this movement was New York magazine’s Josh Barro—though there were definitely more people who thought it but were afraid to say it.

April 2019:

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Yair Rosenberg @Yair_Rosenberg
Don't quite get the Biden-Jeb Bush comparison, which seems mostly superficial. Biden is known for serving 8 years under the most popular living Democratic president. Jeb didn't even have a national brand beyond his last name, which was associated with an unpopular Republican one.
8:49 PM ∙ Apr 29, 2019
146Likes16Retweets
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Yair Rosenberg @Yair_Rosenberg
I totally hear the critique that Biden has problems with the party's progressive flank, but that's very different than suggesting he's some sort of paper tiger who is simply coasting on name recognition without serious Democratic base support.
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Yair Rosenberg @Yair_Rosenberg
Don't quite get the Biden-Jeb Bush comparison, which seems mostly superficial. Biden is known for serving 8 years under the most popular living Democratic president. Jeb didn't even have a national brand beyond his last name, which was associated with an unpopular Republican one.
8:53 PM ∙ Apr 29, 2019
60Likes3Retweets
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Yair Rosenberg @Yair_Rosenberg
Here's the thing about Biden: I think his biggest weakness is his propensity for gaffes, which helped derail his prior presidential runs. But this might be the perfect moment for him, because in the age of Trump, any such gaffes will pale in comparison to his in voters' minds.
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Javi Morgado @javimorgado
Breaking news: New CNN national poll shows @JoeBiden with a commanding lead over the Democratic field. 39% pick Biden as their top choice, @BernieSanders in second with 15%, @SenWarren in third with 8% and @PeteButtigieg with 7%.
11:35 AM ∙ Apr 30, 2019
123Likes21Retweets

August 2019:

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Yair Rosenberg @Yair_Rosenberg
THE DEM PRIMARY CYCLE Bernie has the organization and name recognition to take this nomination Kamala Harris will take down Biden and unite the party Why not Cory Booker? <- YOU ARE HERE OK fine, maybe Buttigieg? It's not too late for Hillary to run again, right? Biden wins
9:37 PM ∙ Aug 1, 2019
98Likes9Retweets

(Replace “Hillary” with “Andrew Cuomo” and this one’s pretty spot-on.)

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Yair Rosenberg @Yair_Rosenberg
The breathless coverage over whoever is currently losing the least to Joe Biden in the Democratic primary feels a lot like the endless coverage of whoever was currently running second to Donald Trump in the 2016 Republican primary.
1:04 AM ∙ Jan 10, 2020
106Likes14Retweets

After Biden secured the nomination, I had some election predictions too, including some very specific claims about voting shares:

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Yair Rosenberg @Yair_Rosenberg
Finally, let me just give one last LOL to all the folks still backseating Biden's campaign and telling him how to win after being wrong about his viability and prospects literally every step of the way. Just sit back and let him do to Trump what he did in the primary!
11:33 PM ∙ Aug 16, 2020
771Likes94Retweets
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Yair Rosenberg @Yair_Rosenberg
Here's an evergreen tweet for you: That Biden gaffe Twitter is obsessing about will not actually matter. I don't need to specify which gaffe, because this is almost always true.
2:51 PM ∙ May 22, 2020
2,511Likes344Retweets
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Yair Rosenberg @Yair_Rosenberg
Biden beat Trump comfortably in the polls throughout the Democratic primary. People claimed the lead was soft. It wasn't. People claimed Biden was a bad candidate who'd fumble the presidential campaign. He hasn't. They claimed Trump would drive down Biden's favorables. He didn't.
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Yair Rosenberg @Yair_Rosenberg
A reminder: Biden isn't winning because of the coronavirus. His big lead predates the virus. Claims to the contrary are revisionist history, as any cursory glance at the polls reveals. Don't believe me? Take a look: https://t.co/cNeeYTNu4L
4:31 PM ∙ Oct 14, 2020
41Likes6Retweets
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Yair Rosenberg @Yair_Rosenberg
My hot take prediction is that a bigger percentage of Latinos will vote for Trump than Jews in this election.
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The Times of Israel @TimesofIsrael
70% of Jews plan to vote Biden, Pew study finds https://t.co/JXnto6s5Ai
9:04 PM ∙ Oct 13, 2020
156Likes9Retweets

The Coronavirus Will Fundamentally Change Our Lives For a Year

This is one that I got right, but also wrong, because I really should have written it up as an article at the time, where it might have done some good, rather than firing it off as a dumb tweet. [My editor nods their head vigorously.]

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Yair Rosenberg @Yair_Rosenberg
I think many policymakers and experts were afraid to say "this will change our lives for at least a year, it's a marathon, not a sprint," and this gave some folks the false impression that lockdown would end this. In the long run, good leadership requires being level with people.
Twitter avatar for @cwarzel
Charlie Warzel @cwarzel
Seeing a new thing bubble up online (& among some in my life) where people feel a bit betrayed because they thought flattening the curve was the end game (and are now realizing it isn't). This is a messaging problem. Some thoughts on how to fix it https://t.co/BHJzy0y392
8:00 PM ∙ May 14, 2020
59Likes14Retweets

Israeli Annexation Probably Won’t Happen Because the Sunni Arab States Don’t Want It To Happen

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Yair Rosenberg @Yair_Rosenberg
Nobody knows what'll happen next on Israel-Palestine, but I think a lot depends on the Arab states. Trump needs them & they've only accepted his plan as a "basis" for talks btwn Israelis & Palestinians, not the final say. Annexation would undermine that. Who will Trump side with?
8:52 PM ∙ Jan 28, 2020
72Likes8Retweets

This one is a bit in the weeds for those who don’t follow the twists and turns of the Middle East, but in short: Benjamin Netanyahu declared that he would annex the West Bank, despite the strenuous opposition of the Palestinian people and the international community. At the time, many suggested that Trump’s “Deal of the Century” peace plan was designed to enable that annexation. But I argued that annexation would undermine America’s and Israel’s relationships with the Sunni Arab states, who’d been quietly burying the hatchet with Israel, and that those states would therefore be the deciding vote.

Eight months after that tweet, Israel normalized relations with the United Arab Emirates—under the condition that annexation be halted.

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Reuters U.S. News @ReutersUS
Israel, UAE to normalize relations in shift in Mideast politics, West Bank annexation on hold reut.rs/3gVCUqv
Image
7:30 PM ∙ Aug 13, 2020
1Like1Retweet

Jury’s Still Out on This One, But I Like My Chances

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Yair Rosenberg @Yair_Rosenberg
Democratic discourse about Romney would be a lot more constructive if it stopped expecting him to be a Democrat, and instead starting treating and evaluating him as a potential Republican partner for important legislation, which may loom large after November 3.
3:27 PM ∙ Oct 13, 2020
97Likes9Retweets

I Got Stuff Wrong Too, I Was Just Mostly Smart Enough Not to Tweet It

I thought Benny Gantz, leader of Israel’s opposition Blue & White party, would probably beat Netanyahu in Israel’s third election of 2020. Instead, he ended up joining a unity government with Netanyahu (the Israeli equivalent of starting a land war in Asia) and now his party is shedding all its members.

I thought the Arab states would stop annexation, but did not think they’d openly normalize with Israel absent greater progress on the Palestinian front.

And the less said about this one from my Reddit AMA, the better:

Of course, the big thing I got wrong in 2020 was that I wasted all the good takes above on Twitter instead of turning them into articles. There’s always 2021. In any case…

Here’s to Small Victories

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Yair Rosenberg @Yair_Rosenberg
It's been a hard year, and you might feel like you haven't accomplished much, but remember: if you're Jewish, you've frustrated the ambitions of every anti-Semite just by continuing to exist. Well done, team.
11:58 PM ∙ Dec 31, 2020
573Likes70Retweets

Happy New Year,
Yair


Want to tell me all the other things I got wrong? Feel free to reply to this email! If you liked what you’ve read, please do share the newsletter and tell your friends about it. Thank you all for your readership, feedback, and support over this last difficult year.

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What I Got Right and Wrong in 2020

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